Is the relationship between stock returns and economic growth disappearing? A cross-sectional analysis

Authors: Yuan-Ming Lee, Bwo-Nung Huang, Kuan-Min Wang

Journal: Chiao Da Management Review. Dec. 2009, 29(2): 163-199.

Keywords: Cross-Sectional Data; Stock Returns; Economic Growth; Threshold Regressive Model

Abstract:
By employing the cross-sectional data of 49 countries from 1960 to 2003 and constructing the threshold regressive (TR) model, this study re-examines the finding of Binswanger (2004) that the relationship between the stock returns and economic growth is disappearing. Our e mpirical results from various sample periods indicate that the significantly positive relationship between the stock returns and economic g rowth exists in both high-income and low-income countries. From our findings we conclude that the empirical result from a linear estimation of Binswanger (2004) is only partially correct. Our findings show that the disappearing relationship only exists in high-income countries.